宏观监测平台 Macro Monitoring Surface
宏观经济指标预测与研究 Macro Indicators, Forecasts & Research
围绕通胀、就业、工业生产与利率曲线，持续跟踪当前周期的关键信号与研究更新。 Track the current cycle through inflation, labor, production, and the rates curve, with integrated signal monitoring and research releases.
月度配置摘要 Monthly Allocation Summary
先用统一的月度口径快速形成判断，再继续查看下方的混频观察面。 Start with a unified monthly lens, then move into the mixed-cadence surface below.
当前决策月 2026年5月 Decision month May 2026 站点更新 2026-05-15 19:16 Site updated 2026-05-15 19:16
已更新 Updated 按官方节奏待发布 Awaiting scheduled release 缺失 Missing
这一层将公开指标统一到当前决策月，便于月度资产配置与投委会式阅读；下方混频观察面继续保留真实发布节奏与领先/滞后关系。 This layer normalizes public indicators to the current decision month for allocation and committee-style reading, while the mixed-cadence surface below preserves real release rhythm and lead-lag relationships.
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后；统一的月度配置口径请先看下方摘要。 Indicators update on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones; use the monthly summary below for a unified allocation read.
| 指标 Indicator | 本期使用值 Current cycle | 下一月预测 Next monthly view | 来源频率 / 观测 Source cadence / Observation | 官方发布 Official release | 状态 Status |
| | 3.20 同比 Year over year | 129.54 目标 2026-04-01 Target 2026-04-01 | 月频 Monthly 观测 2026-03-01 Observed 2026-03-01 | 2026-04-30 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布 Awaiting scheduled release |
| | 115 变动 Change | 158,764 目标 2026-05-01 Target 2026-05-01 | 月频 Monthly 观测 2026-04-01 Observed 2026-04-01 | 2026-05-01 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 已更新 Updated |
| | 0.74 同比 Year over year | 101.85 目标 2026-04-01 Target 2026-04-01 | 月频 Monthly 观测 2026-03-01 Observed 2026-03-01 | 2026-04-15 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布 Awaiting scheduled release |
| | 211,000 水平 Level | 193,244 目标 2026-06-09 Target 2026-06-09 | 周频 Weekly 观测 2026-05-09 Observed 2026-05-09 | 2026-05-14 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 已更新 Updated |
| | 4.46% 水平 Level | 4.46% 目标 2026-06-01 Target 2026-06-01 | 日频 Daily 观测 2026-05-13 Observed 2026-05-13 | 2026-05-13 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 已更新 Updated |
| | 3.98% 水平 Level | 3.98% 目标 2026-06-01 Target 2026-06-01 | 日频 Daily 观测 2026-05-13 Observed 2026-05-13 | 2026-05-13 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 已更新 Updated |
| | 0.48% 水平 Level | 0.48% 目标 2026-06-01 Target 2026-06-01 | 日频 Daily 观测 2026-05-13 Observed 2026-05-13 | 2026-05-13 按官方节奏 Official cadence | 已更新 Updated |
精选信号图表 Featured Signal Charts
把三类最有代表性的信号提前放到首页前段，让用户一打开就能看到曲线、拐点和预测边界，再往下进入终端矩阵与完整混频观察面。 Bring three representative charts toward the top so users immediately see curves, turning points, and forecast boundaries before moving into the surface matrix and the full mixed-cadence board.
0.48%
水平 Level
与当前交易周更接近，更新节奏最快。 Closest to the current trading week and refreshed fastest.
最新观测 Observed 2026-05-13 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-05-13 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-05-15 19:16
下一个交易窗口 Next trading window 2026-06-01 00:00
211,000
水平 Level
按周发布，适合观察劳动力边际变化。 Released weekly and useful for reading marginal labor changes.
最新观测 Observed 2026-05-09 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-05-14 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-05-15 19:16
下一个周度窗口 Next weekly window 2026-06-09 00:00
3.20
同比 Year over year
按月发布，天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。 Released monthly and naturally lags daily and weekly series.
最新观测 Observed 2026-03-01 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-30 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-05-15 19:16
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window 2026-04-01 00:00
终端矩阵 Surface Matrix
先把公开工作面的宽度露出来，再进入具体的混频观察与深读终端。 Make the platform breadth visible first, then move into mixed-cadence monitoring and deep-read terminals.
总览终端 Overview Terminal
日频 Daily 周频 Weekly 月频 Monthly
覆盖全部 7 个正式指标，先给月度配置摘要，再进入按日频、周频、月频组织的深读界面。 Covers all seven published indicators, opening with a monthly allocation summary before moving into deep reads across daily, weekly, and monthly cadence.
7 个指标 7 indicators 3 个模块 3 modules
DGS10DGS2T10Y2YICSAPCEPILFEPAYEMSINDPRO
适合从统一判断切到分频深读。 Best for moving from a unified view into cadence-based deep reading.
进入工作面 Open Surface 主题看板 Thematic Surface
日频 Daily
聚焦 10Y、2Y 与 10Y-2Y 利差，观察交易窗口内的利率水平、曲线变化与风险偏好。 Focuses on the 10Y, 2Y, and 10Y-2Y spread to monitor rates, curve shape, and risk appetite through the trading window.
3 个指标 3 indicators 1 个模块 1 modules
DGS10DGS2T10Y2Y
适合跟踪利率环境与曲线信号。 Best for following the rates regime and curve signals.
进入工作面 Open Surface 主题看板 Thematic Surface
周频 Weekly 月频 Monthly
围绕周频初请失业金和月频就业指标，观察就业景气的边际变化与月度确认。 Pairs weekly claims with monthly labor releases to track marginal labor changes and monthly confirmation.
2 个指标 2 indicators 2 个模块 2 modules
ICSAPAYEMS
适合观察就业的拐点与确认过程。 Best for spotting labor turning points and confirmation signals.
进入工作面 Open Surface 主题看板 Thematic Surface
月频 Monthly
围绕核心 PCE、非农与工业生产，集中查看月频宏观基本面的组合状态。 Centers on Core PCE, payrolls, and industrial production for a focused read on monthly macro fundamentals.
3 个指标 3 indicators 1 个模块 1 modules
PCEPILFEPAYEMSINDPRO
适合月度资产配置与基本面跟踪。 Best for monthly allocation and fundamentals tracking.
进入工作面 Open Surface 更新流 Update Stream
用站点刷新、指标更新、研究发布和下一次官方发布时间，建立持续跟踪的节奏感。 Blend site refreshes, indicator updates, research releases, and the next official release into a visible monitoring rhythm.
站点更新 Site refresh 2026-05-15 19:16
首页、仪表盘、研究页与方法页都已进入当前站点版本。 The homepage, dashboard, research surface, and methodology page have all been refreshed into the current site version.
指标更新 Signal update 2026-05-01 00:00
最新正式发布时间：2026-05-01 00:00:00。 Latest official release: 2026-05-01 00:00:00.
指标更新 Signal update 2026-05-14 00:00
最新正式发布时间：2026-05-14 00:00:00。 Latest official release: 2026-05-14 00:00:00.
指标更新 Signal update 2026-05-13 00:00
最新正式发布时间：2026-05-13 00:00:00。 Latest official release: 2026-05-13 00:00:00.
研究发布 Research release 2026-05-15 19:16
自2021年以来，中国对欧元区的出口大幅增长，出口量在2021年至2024年间增长了约75%。这种增长在汽车和钢铁等行业尤为明显。与此同时，中国的出口价格下降，使中国商品在欧洲市场更具竞争力。 China's exports to the euro area have grown significantly since 2021, with export volumes rising by around 75% between 2021 and 2024. This growth has been particularly pronounced in sectors such as motor vehicles and steel. At the same time, China's export prices have declined, making Chinese goods more competitive in European markets.
发布时间预览 Release Calendar Preview
提前看到各指标的下一次官方发布时间，让站点具备持续跟踪的工作台感。 Preview the next official release dates so the site feels like a live working surface rather than a static page.
| 指标 Indicator | 频率 Cadence | 下一次发布 Next release | 最近一次发布 Latest release | 状态 Status |
工业生产 Industrial Production INDPRO 查看 工业生产 详情页可进一步理解该指标的发布时间与预测窗口。 Open the Industrial Production detail page for more on release rhythm and forecast timing. | 月频 Monthly | 2026-05-15 | 2026-04-15 | 按官方节奏待发布 Awaiting scheduled release |
10年期美债收益率 10Y Treasury Yield DGS10 查看 10年期美债收益率 详情页可进一步理解该指标的发布时间与预测窗口。 Open the 10Y Treasury Yield detail page for more on release rhythm and forecast timing. | 日频 Daily | 2026-05-15 | 2026-05-13 | 已更新 Updated |
2年期美债收益率 2Y Treasury Yield DGS2 查看 2年期美债收益率 详情页可进一步理解该指标的发布时间与预测窗口。 Open the 2Y Treasury Yield detail page for more on release rhythm and forecast timing. | 日频 Daily | 2026-05-15 | 2026-05-13 | 已更新 Updated |
10Y-2Y美债利差 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread T10Y2Y 查看 10Y-2Y美债利差 详情页可进一步理解该指标的发布时间与预测窗口。 Open the 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread detail page for more on release rhythm and forecast timing. | 日频 Daily | 2026-05-15 | 2026-05-13 | 已更新 Updated |
混频观察面 Mixed-Cadence Signal Board
月度配置摘要用于统一判断；下方按日频、周频、月频展开，保留真实发布节奏、领先/滞后关系与下一预测窗口。 The monthly allocation summary provides a unified read, while the mixed-cadence surface below preserves real release rhythm, lead-lag relationships, and the next forecast window.
4.46%
水平 Level
与当前交易周更接近，更新节奏最快。 Closest to the current trading week and refreshed fastest.
最新观测 Observed 2026-05-13 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-05-13 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-05-15 19:16
下一个交易窗口 Next trading window 2026-06-01 00:00
3.98%
水平 Level
与当前交易周更接近，更新节奏最快。 Closest to the current trading week and refreshed fastest.
最新观测 Observed 2026-05-13 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-05-13 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-05-15 19:16
下一个交易窗口 Next trading window 2026-06-01 00:00
0.48%
水平 Level
与当前交易周更接近，更新节奏最快。 Closest to the current trading week and refreshed fastest.
最新观测 Observed 2026-05-13 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-05-13 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-05-15 19:16
下一个交易窗口 Next trading window 2026-06-01 00:00
211,000
水平 Level
按周发布，适合观察劳动力边际变化。 Released weekly and useful for reading marginal labor changes.
最新观测 Observed 2026-05-09 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-05-14 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-05-15 19:16
下一个周度窗口 Next weekly window 2026-06-09 00:00
3.20
同比 Year over year
按月发布，天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。 Released monthly and naturally lags daily and weekly series.
最新观测 Observed 2026-03-01 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-30 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-05-15 19:16
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window 2026-04-01 00:00
115
变动 Change
按月发布，天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。 Released monthly and naturally lags daily and weekly series.
最新观测 Observed 2026-04-01 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-05-01 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-05-15 19:16
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window 2026-05-01 00:00
0.74
同比 Year over year
按月发布，天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。 Released monthly and naturally lags daily and weekly series.
最新观测 Observed 2026-03-01 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-15 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-05-15 19:16
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window 2026-04-01 00:00
研究更新 Research Updates
首页同时承担研究发布面，方便从开盘信号直接进入当期主题阅读。 The homepage also serves as the research-release surface so readers can move from the opening signals directly into current themes.
欧洲中央银行 (ECB) European Central Bank (ECB) 正式研究 Anchor research
自2021年以来，中国对欧元区的出口大幅增长，出口量在2021年至2024年间增长了约75%。这种增长在汽车和钢铁等行业尤为明显。与此同时，中国的出口价格下降，使中国商品在欧洲市场更具竞争力。 China's exports to the euro area have grown significantly since 2021, with export volumes rising by around 75% between 2021 and 2024. This growth has been particularly pronounced in sectors such as motor vehicles and steel. At the same time, China's export prices have declined, making Chinese goods more competitive in European markets.
欧洲 Europe 中国 China 贸易 Trade
发布时间 2026-05-15 Published 2026-05-15
Economic Forecasting Economic Forecasting 月度简报 Monthly brief
最新观测 2026-03-01，当前可用值 3.20；下一预测目标 2026-04-01。 Observed 2026-03-01 with a current usable value of 3.20; next forecast target 2026-04-01.
月频宏观基本面 Monthly Macro Fundamentals 月频 Monthly
发布时间 2026-05-15 Published 2026-05-15
Economic Forecasting Economic Forecasting 月度简报 Monthly brief
最新观测 2026-04-01，当前可用值 115；下一预测目标 2026-05-01。 Observed 2026-04-01 with a current usable value of 115; next forecast target 2026-05-01.
月频宏观基本面 Monthly Macro Fundamentals 月频 Monthly
发布时间 2026-05-15 Published 2026-05-15
Economic Forecasting Economic Forecasting 月度简报 Monthly brief
最新观测 2026-03-01，当前可用值 0.74；下一预测目标 2026-04-01。 Observed 2026-03-01 with a current usable value of 0.74; next forecast target 2026-04-01.
月频宏观基本面 Monthly Macro Fundamentals 月频 Monthly
发布时间 2026-05-15 Published 2026-05-15
方法与边界 Method & Boundary
公开页面保留必要的方法透明度，进一步的维护细节下沉到系统说明页。 Public pages keep the necessary method transparency, while deeper maintenance details live in the System Guide.
覆盖范围 Coverage
公开页面围绕 7 个正式发布指标展开，并在混频观察面之上增加月度配置摘要，兼顾月度判断与节奏观察。 The public surface covers seven published indicators and adds a monthly allocation summary above the mixed-cadence surface to balance decision framing with release-rhythm observation.
时间语义 Time semantics
首页与仪表盘统一展示最新观测、官方发布、站点更新与预测目标四个时间字段，降低对 tooltip 的依赖。 The homepage and dashboard expose observed, official release, site update, and forecast target timestamps directly rather than hiding them behind tooltips.
方法透明度 Method transparency
公开页面保留模型方法摘要、预测窗口与评估指标；更完整的工程说明集中放在系统说明页。 Public pages keep model summaries, forecast windows, and evaluation metrics visible while deeper engineering notes stay in the System Guide.
适用边界 Usage boundary
本平台用于宏观跟踪、研究阅读与方法透明度展示，不构成投资建议。 The platform supports macro monitoring, research reading, and method transparency. It does not constitute investment advice.