Economic Forecasting 宏观经济指标预测与研究 Macro Indicators, Forecasts & Research
更新于 2026-04-07 09:19:24 Updated 2026-04-07 09:19:24
主题看板 Thematic Surface

劳动力与就业 Labor & Employment

围绕周频初请失业金和月频就业指标,观察就业景气的边际变化与月度确认。 Pairs weekly claims with monthly labor releases to track marginal labor changes and monthly confirmation.

2 个劳动力核心指标 2 core labor indicators 适合观察就业的拐点与确认过程。 Best for spotting labor turning points and confirmation signals.
周频 Weekly

周频劳动力信号 Weekly Labor Signals

周度劳动力指标位于日频与月频之间,用来跟踪就业景气的边际变化。 Weekly labor indicators sit between daily and monthly series and help track marginal changes in employment conditions.

周频 Weekly 正常 Normal
202,000
水平 Level
下一个周度窗口 Next weekly window

不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新,月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后,这不代表异常。 Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.

最新观测 Observed 2026-03-28 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-02 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个周度窗口 Next weekly window 2026-04-28 00:00
MAE 32986.796
RMSE 181317.691
MAPE 5.59
方向准确率 Direction 44.2%
观测与预测 Observed vs Forecast ARIMA(1, 1, 1)
月频 Monthly

月频宏观基本面 Monthly Macro Fundamentals

通胀、就业与工业生产等基本面指标按月发布,因此天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。 Inflation, labor, and production fundamentals are released monthly and therefore naturally lag daily and weekly series.

偏积极 Constructive

非农就业人数 Nonfarm Payrolls

PAYEMS

月频 Monthly 正常 Normal
0
同比 Year over year
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window

不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新,月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后,这不代表异常。 Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.

最新观测 Observed 2026-03-01 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-03 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window 2026-03-01 00:00
MAE 618.320
RMSE 2082.910
MAPE 0.44
方向准确率 Direction 76.9%
观测与预测 Observed vs Forecast ARIMAX(0, 1, 0)