变化工作面 Change Workbench

本次变化 Latest Batch

这个页面专门回答“这次发布以来发生了什么”，把本次变化、仍待发布的信号、异常项和关联研究放在同一层工作面。 This page answers one question: what changed in the latest publication cycle, bringing updates, pending signals, exceptions, and related research onto one surface.

查看节奏工作台 Open cadence workbench 查看研究流 Open research stream

查看发布时间历史 Open release history

批次概况 Batch overview

本次更新有 5 个公开指标进入当前决策月，其余指标仍按各自官方节奏等待发布。 5 published indicators entered the current decision month in this release; the rest are still waiting on their official cadence.

本周期已更新 Updated this cycle 5 个指标 5 indicators

按节奏待发布 Awaiting cadence 2 个指标 2 indicators

这些指标当前没有新正式值，但仍处于正常发布时间窗口内。 These signals do not have a new official print yet, but they are still inside their normal release window.

缺失 / 异常 Missing / abnormal 0 个指标 0 indicators

只有真正偏离官方节奏或缺数的指标才会进入这一栏。 Only indicators genuinely outside the official cadence or missing data enter this bucket.

当前周期研究条目 Current-cycle research 5 条更新 5 updates

把本次发布相关的 release notes 和主研究入口放在同一层，方便从变化直接进入解读。 Keep the release notes and lead research for this batch on one layer so readers can move from change straight into interpretation.

优先观察清单 Priority watchlist

把本次已更新、最临近下一次发布时间、以及真正需要排查的公开指标放在同一层，作为这一轮最值得先看的工作清单。 Keep updated, near-term, and genuinely abnormal published indicators together as the first watchlist for this batch.

当前主信号 Lead signal 10Y-2Y美债利差 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread

10Y-2Y美债利差较上一正式值下行 0.01%。 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread fell by 0.01% versus the prior official reading.

10年期美债收益率 10Y Treasury Yield 近两日关注 Watch in 2 days

10年期美债收益率较上一正式值上行 0.04%。 10Y Treasury Yield rose by 0.04% versus the prior official reading.

2年期美债收益率 2Y Treasury Yield 近两日关注 Watch in 2 days

2年期美债收益率较上一正式值上行 0.05%。 2Y Treasury Yield rose by 0.05% versus the prior official reading.

10Y-2Y美债利差 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread 近两日关注 Watch in 2 days

10Y-2Y美债利差较上一正式值下行 0.01%。 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread fell by 0.01% versus the prior official reading.

初请失业金人数 Initial Jobless Claims 近两日关注 Watch in 2 days

初请失业金人数较上一正式值下行 9,000。 Initial Jobless Claims fell by 9,000 versus the prior official reading.

非农就业人数 Nonfarm Payrolls 常规节奏 Normal cadence

非农就业人数较上一正式值上行 0。 Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 0 versus the prior official reading.

工业生产 Industrial Production 常规节奏 Normal cadence

工业生产本周期尚无新正式值，当前仍按既有正式发布节奏等待更新。 Industrial Production has no new official print this cycle yet and is still waiting on its normal release cadence.

变化清单 Change list

把本周期已更新、仍按官方节奏待发布、以及真正缺失/异常的公开指标分开显示，避免把自然滞后误读为问题。 Separate updated, still-pending, and genuinely missing published indicators so natural lag is not mistaken for a problem.

本周期已更新 Updated this cycle

10Y-2Y美债利差 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread 10Y-2Y美债利差较上一正式值下行 0.01%。 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread fell by 0.01% versus the prior official reading.

10年期美债收益率 10Y Treasury Yield 10年期美债收益率较上一正式值上行 0.04%。 10Y Treasury Yield rose by 0.04% versus the prior official reading.

2年期美债收益率 2Y Treasury Yield 2年期美债收益率较上一正式值上行 0.05%。 2Y Treasury Yield rose by 0.05% versus the prior official reading.

非农就业人数 Nonfarm Payrolls 非农就业人数较上一正式值上行 0。 Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 0 versus the prior official reading.

初请失业金人数 Initial Jobless Claims 初请失业金人数较上一正式值下行 9,000。 Initial Jobless Claims fell by 9,000 versus the prior official reading.

按节奏待发布 Awaiting cadence

工业生产 Industrial Production 当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。 No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.

核心PCE物价指数 Core PCE Price Index 当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。 No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.

缺失 / 异常 Missing / abnormal

当前无异常项 No abnormal items 当前公开指标没有真正偏离官方节奏或缺数的异常。 No published signal is currently outside its official cadence or missing data.

关联研究 Linked research

把本次变化对应的 release notes、当前月简报和主研究入口放在一层，方便从变化直接进入解释。 Keep the linked release notes, current-month brief, and lead research together so the user can move from change to interpretation.

Economic Forecasting 研究组 Economic Forecasting Research Desk 正式研究 Anchor research

七个公开信号如何拼成同一张周期记分卡 How the seven public signals fit into one cycle scorecard

这七个公开指标不是七个平行栏目，而是一张分层记分卡。通胀、增长、劳动力和利率分别提供不同的确认职责，只有把它们按发布时间节奏和信息功能放到同一框架里，平台才会真正像终端，而不是一组孤立图表。 The seven public indicators are not seven parallel columns but a layered scorecard. Inflation, growth, labor, and rates each play a different confirmation role, and only a shared cadence-and-function framework makes the platform feel like a terminal rather than a set of disconnected charts.

通胀 Inflation 增长 Growth 劳动力 Labor 利率 Rates 主研究 Anchor 核心PCE物价指数 Core PCE Price Index 非农就业人数 Nonfarm Payrolls 工业生产 Industrial Production 初请失业金人数 Initial Jobless Claims 10年期美债收益率 10Y Treasury Yield 2年期美债收益率 2Y Treasury Yield 10Y-2Y美债利差 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread

Economic Forecasting Economic Forecasting 月度简报 Monthly brief

2026年4月月度配置简报 Apr 2026 monthly brief

本月主线围绕 10Y-2Y美债利差、10年期美债收益率、2年期美债收益率、非农就业人数展开，并统一交代已更新与按节奏待发布的公开指标。 This month's brief centers on 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread, 10Y Treasury Yield, 2Y Treasury Yield, Nonfarm Payrolls and aligns updated versus still-pending published indicators.

月度配置 Monthly allocation 公开指标 Published indicators

核心PCE物价指数 Core PCE Price Index 非农就业人数 Nonfarm Payrolls 工业生产 Industrial Production 10年期美债收益率 10Y Treasury Yield 2年期美债收益率 2Y Treasury Yield 10Y-2Y美债利差 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread 初请失业金人数 Initial Jobless Claims