偏积极 Constructive
当前可用值 Current usable value 1.44
月频宏观基本面 Monthly Macro Fundamentals
工业生产 Industrial Production
工业生产帮助判断制造业和周期品景气度，是增长确认链条里的核心月频变量。 Industrial production helps confirm manufacturing and cyclical momentum and is a core monthly growth variable.
当前周期读数 Current-Cycle Readout
把当前可用值、上一期、下一预测和时间语义放在同一页，方便从总览切到单指标深读。 Keep the current reading, prior observation, next forecast, and timing semantics on one page for single-indicator deep reading.
2.33
102.59
正常 Normal
实时抓取 Fresh fetch
本次变化摘要 This Cycle Change
这一层直接回答当前值相对上一正式值发生了什么，以及本周期是否已经出现新的正式发布。 This layer answers what changed versus the prior official print and whether a new official release has already arrived this cycle.
下行 Down
1.44
按官方节奏待发布 Awaiting scheduled release
2026-04-15
工业生产 当前沿用 1.44 作为最近正式值；本周期尚无新正式发布，上一正式值为 2.33。 Industrial Production is still carrying 1.44 as the latest official reading this cycle; no new official print has arrived yet and the prior official reading was 2.33.
时间语义 Time semantics
最新观测、官方发布、站点更新和预测目标分别回答的是不同问题，不能彼此替代。 Observed, official release, site update, and forecast target answer different questions and should not be treated as interchangeable.
最新观测 Observed 2026-02-01 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-03-16 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window 2026-02-01 00:00
图表阅读 Chart view
先看焦点窗口确认最新拐点和预测边界，再看长历史窗口理解该指标在更长周期中的位置。 Use the focus window for the latest turn and forecast boundary, then the long-history window for broader cycle context.
焦点图 Focus chart ARIMAX(0, 1, 0)
长历史图 Long-history chart 全窗口 Full window
模型与诊断 Model & diagnostics
MAE 0.691
RMSE 1.419
MAPE 0.71
方向准确率 Direction 47.4%
模型框架：ARIMAX(0, 1, 0) Model: ARIMAX(0, 1, 0)
发布时间节奏 Release cadence
发布时间有早有后通常来自指标自身的官方节奏差异，而不是站点异常。 Differences across release timing usually come from the indicator's official cadence rather than a site anomaly.
| 正式发布时间 Official release | 观测期 Observed at | 正式值 Official value | 本周期标记 Cycle flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | 2026-02-01 | 1.44 | |
| 2026-02-16 | 2026-01-01 | 2.33 | |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-01 | 1.35 | |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-01 | 2.08 | |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-10-01 | 1.75 | |
| 2025-10-15 | 2025-09-01 | 1.86 | |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-08-01 | 1.19 | |
| 2025-08-15 | 2025-07-01 | 1.92 | |
| 2025-07-15 | 2025-06-01 | 0.58 | |
| 2025-06-16 | 2025-05-01 | 0.10 | |
| 2025-05-15 | 2025-04-01 | 0.88 | |
| 2025-04-15 | 2025-03-01 | 0.58 |
方法与边界 Method & boundary
相关研究 Related research
优先展示与当前指标直接相关的正式研究和模板化更新摘要，帮助从单指标延伸到主题判断。 Prioritize anchor research and templated update briefs linked to this indicator so the user can move from a single series into thematic reading.
主研究 Anchor Research
Economic Forecasting 研究组 Economic Forecasting Research Desk 正式研究 Anchor research
七个公开信号如何拼成同一张周期记分卡 How the seven public signals fit into one cycle scorecard
通胀 Inflation 增长 Growth 劳动力 Labor 利率 Rates 主研究 Anchor
月度简报 Monthly Briefs
Economic Forecasting Economic Forecasting 月度简报 Monthly brief
2026年4月月度配置简报 Apr 2026 monthly brief
月度配置 Monthly allocation 公开指标 Published indicators