Economic Forecasting 宏观经济指标预测与研究 Macro Indicators, Forecasts & Research
更新于 2026-04-07 09:19:24 Updated 2026-04-07 09:19:24

混频观察面 Mixed-Cadence Signal Board

先用真实发布节奏浏览日频、周频和月频信号,再往下进入统一的预测指标摘要与后续工作面。 Start with the real mixed-cadence release rhythm across daily, weekly, and monthly signals, then move into the unified forecast summary and the rest of the workbench.

日频 Daily

日频市场信号 Daily Market Signals

利率与利差信号更新更快,更适合观察当前交易日附近的变化。 Rates and spread signals refresh faster and are best used for observing changes around the current trading window.

日频 Daily 正常 Normal
4.35%
水平 Level
与当前交易周更接近,更新节奏最快。 Closest to the current trading week and refreshed fastest.
最新观测 Observed 2026-04-03 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-03 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个交易窗口 Next trading window 2026-05-01 00:00
偏积极 Constructive

2年期美债收益率 2Y Treasury Yield

DGS2

日频 Daily 正常 Normal
3.84%
水平 Level
与当前交易周更接近,更新节奏最快。 Closest to the current trading week and refreshed fastest.
最新观测 Observed 2026-04-03 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-03 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个交易窗口 Next trading window 2026-05-01 00:00
偏积极 Constructive

10Y-2Y美债利差 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread

T10Y2Y

日频 Daily 正常 Normal
0.50%
水平 Level
与当前交易周更接近,更新节奏最快。 Closest to the current trading week and refreshed fastest.
最新观测 Observed 2026-04-06 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-06 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个交易窗口 Next trading window 2026-05-01 00:00
周频 Weekly

周频劳动力信号 Weekly Labor Signals

周度劳动力指标位于日频与月频之间,用来跟踪就业景气的边际变化。 Weekly labor indicators sit between daily and monthly series and help track marginal changes in employment conditions.

周频 Weekly 正常 Normal
202,000
水平 Level
按周发布,适合观察劳动力边际变化。 Released weekly and useful for reading marginal labor changes.
最新观测 Observed 2026-03-28 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-02 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个周度窗口 Next weekly window 2026-04-28 00:00
月频 Monthly

月频宏观基本面 Monthly Macro Fundamentals

通胀、就业与工业生产等基本面指标按月发布,因此天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。 Inflation, labor, and production fundamentals are released monthly and therefore naturally lag daily and weekly series.

偏积极 Constructive

核心PCE物价指数 Core PCE Price Index

PCEPILFE

月频 Monthly 正常 Normal
3.06
同比 Year over year
按月发布,天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。 Released monthly and naturally lags daily and weekly series.
最新观测 Observed 2026-01-01 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-02-27 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window 2026-01-01 00:00
偏积极 Constructive

非农就业人数 Nonfarm Payrolls

PAYEMS

月频 Monthly 正常 Normal
0
同比 Year over year
按月发布,天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。 Released monthly and naturally lags daily and weekly series.
最新观测 Observed 2026-03-01 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-04-03 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window 2026-03-01 00:00
偏积极 Constructive

工业生产 Industrial Production

INDPRO

月频 Monthly 正常 Normal
1.44
同比 Year over year
按月发布,天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。 Released monthly and naturally lags daily and weekly series.
最新观测 Observed 2026-02-01 00:00
官方发布 Official release 2026-03-16 00:00
站点更新 Site update 2026-04-07 09:19
下一个月度窗口 Next monthly window 2026-02-01 00:00

预测指标摘要 Forecast Indicator Summary

在混频信号之后,用统一的指标摘要查看当前使用值、下一步预测与官方发布状态。 After the mixed-cadence surface, use this summary to scan current readings, next-step forecasts, and official release status in one place.

当前决策月 2026年4月 Decision month Apr 2026 站点更新 2026-04-07 09:19 Site updated 2026-04-07 09:19
已更新 Updated 按官方节奏待发布 Awaiting scheduled release 缺失 Missing

这一层将公开指标统一到当前决策月,便于月度资产配置与投委会式阅读;下方混频观察面继续保留真实发布节奏与领先/滞后关系。 This layer normalizes public indicators to the current decision month for allocation and committee-style reading, while the mixed-cadence surface below preserves real release rhythm and lead-lag relationships.

指标 Indicator 本期使用值 Current cycle 下一月预测 Next monthly view 来源频率 / 观测 Source cadence / Observation 官方发布 Official release 状态 Status
3.06 同比 Year over year
128.24 目标 2026-01-01 Target 2026-01-01
月频 Monthly 观测 2026-01-01 Observed 2026-01-01
2026-02-27 按官方节奏 Official cadence
按官方节奏待发布 Awaiting scheduled release 当前决策月内尚无新正式值,但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。 No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.
0 同比 Year over year
158,603 目标 2026-03-01 Target 2026-03-01
月频 Monthly 观测 2026-03-01 Observed 2026-03-01
2026-04-03 按官方节奏 Official cadence
已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month.
1.44 同比 Year over year
102.59 目标 2026-02-01 Target 2026-02-01
月频 Monthly 观测 2026-02-01 Observed 2026-02-01
2026-03-16 按官方节奏 Official cadence
按官方节奏待发布 Awaiting scheduled release 当前决策月内尚无新正式值,但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。 No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.
202,000 水平 Level
285,219 目标 2026-04-28 Target 2026-04-28
周频 Weekly 观测 2026-03-28 Observed 2026-03-28
2026-04-02 按官方节奏 Official cadence
已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month.
4.35% 水平 Level
4.35% 目标 2026-05-01 Target 2026-05-01
日频 Daily 观测 2026-04-03 Observed 2026-04-03
2026-04-03 按官方节奏 Official cadence
已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month.
3.84% 水平 Level
3.84% 目标 2026-05-01 Target 2026-05-01
日频 Daily 观测 2026-04-03 Observed 2026-04-03
2026-04-03 按官方节奏 Official cadence
已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month.
0.50% 水平 Level
0.50% 目标 2026-05-01 Target 2026-05-01
日频 Daily 观测 2026-04-06 Observed 2026-04-06
2026-04-06 按官方节奏 Official cadence
已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month.

终端矩阵 Surface Matrix

先把公开工作面的宽度露出来,再进入具体的混频观察与深读终端。 Make the platform breadth visible first, then move into mixed-cadence monitoring and deep-read terminals.

总览终端 Overview Terminal
日频 Daily 周频 Weekly 月频 Monthly

宏观总览终端 Macro Overview Terminal

覆盖全部 7 个正式指标,先给月度配置摘要,再进入按日频、周频、月频组织的深读界面。 Covers all seven published indicators, opening with a monthly allocation summary before moving into deep reads across daily, weekly, and monthly cadence.

7 个指标 7 indicators 3 个模块 3 modules
DGS10DGS2T10Y2YICSAPCEPILFEPAYEMSINDPRO

适合从统一判断切到分频深读。 Best for moving from a unified view into cadence-based deep reading.

进入工作面 Open Surface
主题看板 Thematic Surface
日频 Daily

利率与曲线 Rates & Curve

聚焦 10Y、2Y 与 10Y-2Y 利差,观察交易窗口内的利率水平、曲线变化与风险偏好。 Focuses on the 10Y, 2Y, and 10Y-2Y spread to monitor rates, curve shape, and risk appetite through the trading window.

3 个指标 3 indicators 1 个模块 1 modules
DGS10DGS2T10Y2Y

适合跟踪利率环境与曲线信号。 Best for following the rates regime and curve signals.

进入工作面 Open Surface
主题看板 Thematic Surface
周频 Weekly 月频 Monthly

劳动力与就业 Labor & Employment

围绕周频初请失业金和月频就业指标,观察就业景气的边际变化与月度确认。 Pairs weekly claims with monthly labor releases to track marginal labor changes and monthly confirmation.

2 个指标 2 indicators 2 个模块 2 modules
ICSAPAYEMS

适合观察就业的拐点与确认过程。 Best for spotting labor turning points and confirmation signals.

进入工作面 Open Surface
主题看板 Thematic Surface
月频 Monthly

增长与通胀 Growth & Inflation

围绕核心 PCE、非农与工业生产,集中查看月频宏观基本面的组合状态。 Centers on Core PCE, payrolls, and industrial production for a focused read on monthly macro fundamentals.

3 个指标 3 indicators 1 个模块 1 modules
PCEPILFEPAYEMSINDPRO

适合月度资产配置与基本面跟踪。 Best for monthly allocation and fundamentals tracking.

进入工作面 Open Surface

本次更新 This Cycle

本次更新有 5 个公开指标进入当前决策月,其余指标仍按各自官方节奏等待发布。 5 published indicators entered the current decision month in this release; the rest are still waiting on their official cadence.

更新流 Update Stream

用站点刷新、指标更新、研究发布和下一次官方发布时间,建立持续跟踪的节奏感。 Blend site refreshes, indicator updates, research releases, and the next official release into a visible monitoring rhythm.

研究发布 Research release 2026-04-07 09:19

2026年4月月度配置简报 Apr 2026 monthly brief

本月主线围绕 10Y-2Y美债利差、10年期美债收益率、2年期美债收益率、非农就业人数 展开,并统一交代已更新与按节奏待发布的公开指标。 This month's brief centers on 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread, 10Y Treasury Yield, 2Y Treasury Yield, Nonfarm Payrolls and aligns updated versus still-pending published indicators.

发布时间预览 Release Calendar Preview

提前看到各指标的下一次官方发布时间,让站点具备持续跟踪的工作台感。 Preview the next official release dates so the site feels like a live working surface rather than a static page.

指标 Indicator 频率 Cadence 最近一次正式发布 Latest official release 下一次正式发布 Next official release 当前状态 Current status
10年期美债收益率 10Y Treasury Yield DGS10 查看 10年期美债收益率 详情页可进一步理解该指标的发布时间与预测窗口。 Open the 10Y Treasury Yield detail page for more on release rhythm and forecast timing.
日频 Daily
2026-04-03
2026-04-07
已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month.
2年期美债收益率 2Y Treasury Yield DGS2 查看 2年期美债收益率 详情页可进一步理解该指标的发布时间与预测窗口。 Open the 2Y Treasury Yield detail page for more on release rhythm and forecast timing.
日频 Daily
2026-04-03
2026-04-07
已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month.
10Y-2Y美债利差 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread T10Y2Y 查看 10Y-2Y美债利差 详情页可进一步理解该指标的发布时间与预测窗口。 Open the 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread detail page for more on release rhythm and forecast timing.
日频 Daily
2026-04-06
2026-04-07
已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month.
初请失业金人数 Initial Jobless Claims ICSA 查看 初请失业金人数 详情页可进一步理解该指标的发布时间与预测窗口。 Open the Initial Jobless Claims detail page for more on release rhythm and forecast timing.
周频 Weekly
2026-04-02
2026-04-09
已更新 Updated 本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。 A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month.

研究更新 Research Updates

首页研究区同时呈现人工主研究、月度简报和最新指标更新,让平台既有主题判断也有持续节奏感。 The homepage research surface combines anchor research, a monthly brief, and the latest indicator updates so the platform carries both thematic conviction and release rhythm.

首页研究区固定呈现 1 条主研究、1 条当月简报和最新的指标更新摘要,用来把结构化判断和持续更新感放在同一个入口层。 The homepage research surface keeps one anchor, one current-month brief, and the latest signal notes in view so structural conviction and update cadence stay visible in one entry layer.

Economic Forecasting Economic Forecasting 月度简报 Monthly brief

2026年4月月度配置简报 Apr 2026 monthly brief

本月主线围绕 10Y-2Y美债利差、10年期美债收益率、2年期美债收益率、非农就业人数 展开,并统一交代已更新与按节奏待发布的公开指标。 This month's brief centers on 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread, 10Y Treasury Yield, 2Y Treasury Yield, Nonfarm Payrolls and aligns updated versus still-pending published indicators.

月度配置 Monthly allocation 公开指标 Published indicators
发布时间 2026-04-07 Published 2026-04-07

方法与边界 Method & Boundary

公开页面保留必要的方法透明度,进一步的维护细节下沉到系统说明页。 Public pages keep the necessary method transparency, while deeper maintenance details live in the System Guide.

覆盖范围 Coverage

公开页面围绕 7 个正式发布指标展开,并在混频观察面之上增加月度配置摘要,兼顾月度判断与节奏观察。 The public surface covers seven published indicators and adds a monthly allocation summary above the mixed-cadence surface to balance decision framing with release-rhythm observation.

时间语义 Time semantics

首页与仪表盘统一展示最新观测、官方发布、站点更新与预测目标四个时间字段,降低对 tooltip 的依赖。 The homepage and dashboard expose observed, official release, site update, and forecast target timestamps directly rather than hiding them behind tooltips.

方法透明度 Method transparency

公开页面保留模型方法摘要、预测窗口与评估指标;更完整的工程说明集中放在系统说明页。 Public pages keep model summaries, forecast windows, and evaluation metrics visible while deeper engineering notes stay in the System Guide.

适用边界 Usage boundary

本平台用于宏观跟踪、研究阅读与方法透明度展示,不构成投资建议。 The platform supports macro monitoring, research reading, and method transparency. It does not constitute investment advice.